Author: superadmin02

预言经已成真？

回顾重力波近五年来的应用状况

2016年，罗奈尔特•德雷弗、基普•索恩及雷纳•韦斯凭借构思并设计激光干涉仪重力波观测站（Laser Interferometer Gravitational-Wave Observatory ，LIGO），获颁邵逸夫天文学奖。获奖赞辞特别包括了「他们最近发明的直接探测重力波方法，为天文学界开打开了新的窗口」。由首次观测到重力波（由一对黑洞的合并所产生）至今，已经过了大约五年，到底重力波是否真的为天文学打开了新的窗口，我们不妨回顾一下。

从大量数据中的新发现

2015年9月至2016年1月，当时正进行第一次所谓观测运行。运行中产生大量数据，并首次发现重力波的存在。在第一次观测运行中，先进激光干涉仪重力波观测站（Advanced LIGO）两度探测到重力波，两次均源自两个黑洞的撞击。


自从2016年获得邵逸夫奖以来，先进LIGO进行过另外两次观测。两个先进LIGO观测站总共获得数以万亿字节（terabyte）计的数据；重力波的微弱痕迹，正是深藏在噪讯之中。研究人员以复杂的演算法来搜索所得数据，以分析并核实可能出现过的重力波事件，历时长达数个月。


他们又利用两次观测运行之间的空档提升观测站的灵敏度，例如，在头两次观测运行之间的空档里，他们将两个先进LIGO的仪器灵敏度提高了约20％，相当于将可供观测的讯号增加70%（讯号量与距离的三次方成正比）。


第二次观测运行于2016年11月至2017年8月间进行，今次观测运行将测得结果总次数提升至11次。第三次观测运行则于2019年4月开始，至2020年3月因为新型冠状病毒肺炎爆发而暂停。到目前为止，截至2019年10月的已报告数据已将重力波事件总次数由头两次观测运行的11次增加至50次。


的而且确，由2015年9月首次发现重力波以来，仅仅经过五年，探测重力波就已趋普及。如今，在掌握到50次的重力波探测结果后，我们在探索整个宇宙的黑洞及中子星的数量方面会更有把握。自从动力波观测活动激增后，我们得以归纳到一些精采的崭新见解。

多尺度动理学模型的不确定量化研究

动理学模型在很多重要领域都被广泛应用，例如稀薄气体，等离子物理，天文物理，以及一些新兴领域例如半导体设置，环境、社会和生物科学。动理学模型描述的是由大量粒子组成的空气系统的动态演变，其解描述的是某个时刻，粒子出现在某个空间位置，以某个速度运动的概率。在多尺度物理模型的框架中，动理学模型在原子和连续模型之间建立了桥梁。下图描绘了空气动理学模型在从微观到宏观的多尺度物理模型中的位置：

图1︰多尺度下的物理模型

玻尔兹曼方程在1872 年被路德维希-玻尔兹曼发现，是动理学物理中最重要的模型之一。它是一个带有积分和微分算子的方程，描述了单原子稀薄气体粒子之间的二元碰撞和空间运动。历史上，人们在理论和数值计算方面已经对玻尔兹曼方程做出大量研究。

至于动理学的应用，举例来说，稀薄气体的动理学在航空航天探索中无处不在。受上世纪五六十年代的太空探索项目的推动，世界各地的科学家在中和及离子化的流体学的理论和实验研究方面取得了突破进展。

太空项目中，研究重返载具周围的气流是一项很重要的应用，例如动理加热，卫星阻力和能量的平衡，火箭在极端高度和太空中操作时的排气量，设计高空大气的发声装置，极端高度的气云，等等。玻尔兹曼方程在其他领域也有广泛而重要的应用，例如航天物理，等离子体物理，粒子加速器和半导体装置的设计，等等。

长者的科技采用 – 新一代的精明老人

资讯与通讯科技以火箭般的速度日渐先进和复杂。然而，很多已发展社会正出现人口老化现象，所以需要发展现代的医术并在营养和公共卫生中作出改善；香港预计在2030年有超过25%人口的年龄为65岁或以上，相比2017年上升超过16%，但长者采用科技尚未普及，他们经常对使用科技有不同意见，有些认为新科技会很复杂甚至带来不便，费用和私隐亦是常见的担忧。为了推广长者采用科技，家庭成员的支持很重要，生产商也可以研发一些简单和方便使用的产品去协助长者使用科技，政府可以鼓励或与非牟利机构合作去举办不同的宣传活动、课程和提供持续的支援，去促进使用。科技可以提升长者的生活质素，不论在疫病上或健康上，都有无数潜在的好处。

健康人生

根据世界卫生组织，健康人生是关乎设立一个环境和机会让人们可在生活上做他们想做和值得去做的事情 (WHO, 2020)。这是一个过程去维持和发展他们的生活能力的，包括达到他们的基本需要、维持他们的灵活性、确保他们可以建立和维持关系、持续学习，并作出自决和为社会作出贡献。在个人和环境之间是有内在关系，可以是人们对家庭和社会的关系，以及社会政策和体制；个人能力也可以关乎生理上和心理上的能力，例如记忆力、听力和视力，都会随着年龄而有所影响。

健康人生包含活跃老化，这是需要不同部门和机构的实质行动去支援家庭和社会。以本地推广健康人生而言，不同政府部门和公营机构均会提供长者服务，例如卫生署的长者健康服务(2018) 和香港中文大学赛马会老年学研究所，他们会教育长者如何从饮食习惯、心理健康、人际关系、科技等方面去达致健康人生。总括而言，科技将会成为推广健康人生的一个重要因素。

CAR-T细胞：程式控制癌症杀手

堕进幻想空间

癌症对人类来说无疑是其中一种最可怕的疾病，它被定义为一种细胞失控地进行分裂的病症。除了手术外，传统的治疗方法还包括放射治疗及化学治疗，原意是选择性地杀死癌细胞，但是这两种疗法都有同时错误杀死健康细胞的可能，所以时常带来不良的副作用。幸好，免疫疗法（immunotherapy）近来的突破让我们可以借用自身的免疫系统，更精确地对抗癌症。让我们进入幻想世界，认识一下广为人知的嵌合抗原受体T细胞疗法（chimeric antigen receptor T cell (CAR-T cell) therapy）吧：那是一只我们特意创造来消灭癌症​​的合成怪物。这个疗法的概念就是从病人身体提取一种叫T细胞的免疫细胞，然后在体外把它们基因改造成嵌合抗原受体T细胞（CAR-T细胞），再把已转化的细胞注射回病人的身体内。利用得来的新能力，CAR-T细胞能辨认并攻击癌细胞，因此将它们形容为活生生的药物也绝不夸张！

基本知识 — 工作中的免疫细胞！

CAR-T细胞是基于我们现时对免疫细胞的认识而制成的。免疫细胞是身体对付感染和疾病自然防御机制的一部分。以下是关于与疗法相关的免疫细胞的一些基本知识。

火星探索IV

我们在之前的电子通讯提及，中国、阿联酋和美国都在去年7月的发射窗口期先后成功发射了火星探测器前往火星执行各种任务。经过超过半年的太空航行，三架火星探测器– 中国的「天问一号」、阿联酋的「希望号」和美国的「毅力号」都已经到达了他们的目的地，并正式展开他们的探索任务。

探索火星从来都不是简单的任务，科学家要不断努力尝试克服各种困难。期望他们积累更多经验，加上科技上的进展，可令未来的火星探索任务更成功！

 

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預言經已成真？

回顧重力波近五年來的應用狀況

2016年，羅奈爾特•德雷弗、基普•索恩及雷納•韋斯憑藉構思並設計激光干涉儀重力波觀測站（Laser Interferometer Gravitational-Wave Observatory ，LIGO），獲頒邵逸夫天文學獎。獲獎讚辭特別包括了「他們最近發明的直接探測重力波方法，為天文學界開打開了新的窗口」。由首次觀測到重力波（由一對黑洞的合併所產生）至今，已經過了大約五年，到底重力波是否真的為天文學打開了新的窗口，我們不妨回顧一下。

從大量數據中的新發現

2015年9月至2016年1月，當時正進行第一次所謂觀測運行。運行中產生大量數據，並首次發現重力波的存在。在第一次觀測運行中，先進激光干涉儀重力波觀測站（Advanced LIGO）兩度探測到重力波，兩次均源自兩個黑洞的撞擊。


自從2016年獲得邵逸夫獎以來，先進LIGO進行過另外兩次觀測。兩個先進LIGO觀測站總共獲得數以萬億字節（terabyte）計的數據；重力波的微弱痕跡，正是深藏在噪訊之中。研究人員以複雜的演算法來搜索所得數據，以分析並核實可能出現過的重力波事件，歷時長達數個月。


他們又利用兩次觀測運行之間的空檔提升觀測站的靈敏度，例如，在頭兩次觀測運行之間的空檔裏，他們將兩個先進LIGO的儀器靈敏度提高了約20％，相當於將可供觀測的訊號增加70%（訊號量與距離的三次方成正比）。


第二次觀測運行於2016年11月至2017年8月間進行，今次觀測運行將測得結果總次數提升至11次。第三次觀測運行則於2019年4月開始，至2020年3月因為新型冠狀病毒肺炎爆發而暫停。到目前為止，截至2019年10月的已報告數據已將重力波事件總次數由頭兩次觀測運行的11次增加至50次。


的而且確，由2015年9月首次發現重力波以來，僅僅經過五年，探測重力波就已趨普及。如今，在掌握到50次的重力波探測結果後，我們在探索整個宇宙的黑洞及中子星的數量方面會更有把握。自從動力波觀測活動激增後，我們得以歸納到一些精采的嶄新見解。

多尺度動理學模型的不確定量化研究

動理學模型在很多重要領域都被廣泛應用，例如稀薄氣體，等離子物理，天文物理，以及一些新興領域例如半導體設置，環境、社會和生物科學。動理學模型描述的是由大量粒子組成的空氣系統的動態演變，其解描述的是某個時刻，粒子出現在某個空間位置，以某個速度運動的概率。在多尺度物理模型的框架中，動理學模型在原子和連續模型之間建立了橋樑。下圖描繪了空氣動理學模型在從微觀到宏觀的多尺度物理模型中的位置：

圖1︰多尺度下的物理模型

玻爾茲曼方程在1872 年被路德維希-玻爾茲曼發現，是動理學物理中最重要的模型之一。它是一個帶有積分和微分算子的方程，描述了單原子稀薄氣體粒子之間的二元碰撞和空間運動。歷史上，人們在理論和數值計算方面已經對玻爾茲曼方程做出大量研究。

至於動理學的應用，舉例來說，稀薄氣體的動理學在航空航天探索中無處不在。受上世紀五六十年代的太空探索項目的推動，世界各地的科學家在中和及離子化的流體學的理論和實驗研究方面取得了突破進展。

太空項目中，研究重返載具周圍的氣流是一項很重要的應用，例如動理加熱，衛星阻力和能量的平衡，火箭在極端高度和太空中操作時的排氣量，設計高空大氣的發聲裝置，極端高度的氣雲，等等。玻爾茲曼方程在其他領域也有廣泛而重要的應用，例如航天物理，等離子體物理，粒子加速器和半導體裝置的設計，等等。

長者的科技採用 – 新一代的精明老人

資訊與通訊科技以火箭般的速度日漸先進和複雜。然而，很多已發展社會正出現人口老化現象，所以需要發展現代的醫術並在營養和公共衛生中作出改善；香港預計在2030年有超過25%人口的年齡為65歲或以上，相比2017年上升超過16%，但長者採用科技尚未普及，他們經常對使用科技有不同意見，有些認為新科技會很複雜甚至帶來不便，費用和私隱亦是常見的擔憂。為了推廣長者採用科技，家庭成員的支持很重要，生產商也可以研發一些簡單和方便使用的產品去協助長者使用科技，政府可以鼓勵或與非牟利機構合作去舉辦不同的宣傳活動、課程和提供持續的支援，去促進使用。科技可以提升長者的生活質素，不論在疫病上或健康上，都有無數潛在的好處。

健康人生

根據世界衛生組織，健康人生是關乎設立一個環境和機會讓人們可在生活上做他們想做和值得去做的事情 (WHO, 2020)。這是一個過程去維持和發展他們的生活能力的，包括達到他們的基本需要、維持他們的靈活性、確保他們可以建立和維持關係、持續學習，並作出自決和為社會作出貢獻。在個人和環境之間是有內在關係，可以是人們對家庭和社會的關係，以及社會政策和體制；個人能力也可以關乎生理上和心理上的能力，例如記憶力、聽力和視力，都會隨著年齡而有所影響。

健康人生包含活躍老化，這是需要不同部門和機構的實質行動去支援家庭和社會。以本地推廣健康人生而言，不同政府部門和公營機構均會提供長者服務，例如衛生署的長者健康服務 (2018) 和香港中文大學賽馬會老年學研究所，他們會教育長者如何從飲食習慣、心理健康、人際關係、科技等方面去達致健康人生。總括而言，科技將會成為推廣健康人生的一個重要因素。

CAR-T細胞：程式控制癌症殺手

墮進幻想空間

癌症對人類來說無疑是其中一種最可怕的疾病，它被定義為一種細胞失控地進行分裂的病症。除了手術外，傳統的治療方法還包括放射治療及化學治療，原意是選擇性地殺死癌細胞，但是這兩種療法都有同時錯誤殺死健康細胞的可能，所以時常帶來不良的副作用。幸好，免疫療法（immunotherapy）近來的突破讓我們可以借用自身的免疫系統，更精確地對抗癌症。讓我們進入幻想世界，認識一下廣為人知的嵌合抗原受體T細胞療法（chimeric antigen receptor T cell (CAR-T cell) therapy）吧：那是一隻我們特意創造來消滅癌症的合成怪物。這個療法的概念就是從病人身體提取一種叫T細胞的免疫細胞，然後在體外把它們基因改造成嵌合抗原受體T細胞（CAR-T細胞），再把已轉化的細胞注射回病人的身體內。利用得來的新能力，CAR-T細胞能辨認並攻擊癌細胞，因此將它們形容為活生生的藥物也絕不誇張！

基本知識 — 工作中的免疫細胞！

CAR-T細胞是基於我們現時對免疫細胞的認識而製成的。免疫細胞是身體對付感染和疾病自然防禦機制的一部分。以下是關於與療法相關的免疫細胞的一些基本知識。

火星探索IV

我們在之前的電子通訊提到，中國、阿聯酋和美國都在去年7月的發射窗口期先後成功發射了火星探測器前往火星執行各種任務。經過超過半年的太空航行，三架火星探測器 – 中國的「天問一號」、阿聯酋的「希望號」和美國的「毅力號」都已經到達了他們的目的地，並正式展開他們的探索任務。

三個國家的火星探測器各有使命，都是為了了解更多火星的資訊。探索火星從來都不是簡單的任務，科學家要不斷努力嘗試克服各種困難。期望他們累積更多經驗，加上科技上的進展，可令未來的火星探索任務更成功！

 

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About the Hong Kong Laureate Forum

Welcome to the March 2021 issue of the newsletter of the Hong Kong Laureate Forum!

“Science Hunt” online quiz game is coming to an end! We launched the Game last October and deadline for submission of answers for last round of games is 5 April. It has been almost six months since we launched the Game, we are excited to see enthusiastic participation from the community. There are more than 3,000 entries so far, some participants also further enquired about the answers and explanations after we published them on our website, hoping to gain more scientific knowledge.

We would like to take this opportunity to thank our local scientists and organisation for their assistance in providing questions, answers and explanations and to further answer participants’ enquiries in a professional manner. They are:

• Prof Jason CHAN, HKUST
• Dr CHAN Man Ho, EdUHK
• Prof CHU Ming Chung, CUHK
• Dr HO Koon Sing, HKBU
• Prof Tjonnie LI, CUHK
• Consulate General of France in Hong Kong & Macau

Don’t forget that we also have lucky draws for the Grand Prize, Active Participation Prize and Lucky Prize in mid-April. In May, we will launch a new game about interesting scientific terms.

On the other hand, the first-tier review of applications for the inaugural Hong Kong Laureate Forum has been completed, more information on the inaugural Forum will be published on our website and social media, please stay tuned!

Trade Promotion Competition Licence No.: 53749-50

Prophecy Fulfilled?

Reviewing Half a Decade of Gravitational Waves

In 2016, the Shaw Prize in Astronomy was awarded to Ronald Drever, Kip Thorne and Rainer
Weiss for conceiving and designing the Laser Interferometer Gravitational-Wave Observatory
(LIGO). In particular, the award statement includes the phrase “whose recent direct detection of
gravitational waves opens a new window in astronomy”. Some five years after the first
observation of gravitational waves (from the merger of a pair of black holes), it is worth
reviewing whether a new window in astronomy has indeed been opened.

Discoveries from a Wealth of Data

The first discovery of gravitational waves was made during the first so-called observation run,
extended stretches of data taking, between September 2015 and January 2016. During this first
observation run, Advanced LIGO made two detections of gravitational waves, both originating in
the collision of two black holes.

Since the award of the 2016 Shaw Prize, Advanced LIGO has conducted two more observation
runs. Altogether, the two Advanced LIGO detectors have generated terabytes of data in which
faint traces of gravitational waves are buried within the noise. The data is being searched using
complex algorithms, which take months to analyse and verify potential gravitational-wave
events.

The periods in between observation runs are used to enhance the sensitivity of the detectors.
For example, in the interval between the first two observation runs, the sensitivity of both
Advanced LIGO instruments was improved by about 20%, which equals being able to observe
70% more signals (the volume grows with the cube of the distance).

The second observation run was conducted between November 2016 and August 2017. This
observation run lifted the total number of detections to 11. The third observation run started in
April 2019 and ran until March 2020 when the observation run was suspended due to the
COVID-19 pandemic. So far, the data so reported up to October 2019, had added 39
gravitational-wave events to the 11 from the first two observation runs.

Indeed, as improbable as it seems, the detection of gravitational waves has now become
commonplace, only five years after the first detection in September 2015. With now 50
gravitational-wave detections we are better able to explore the population of black holes and
neutron stars throughout the Universe. This proliferation of gravitational-wave observations has
enabled us to generate some exciting new insights.

A Study on Multiscale Kinetic Models with Uncertainties

Kinetic equations are widely used in many important areas
such as rarefied gas, plasma physics, astrophysics, and have also seen a host of new
applications such as semiconductor device modeling, environmental, social and
biological sciences. They describe the non-equilibrium dynamics of a gas system
composed of a large number of particles. The solutions to kinetic models determine
the probability density functions of the dynamical states of a large number of
particles, which usually depend on time, space and velocity. Kinetic equations bridge
atomistic and continuum models in the hierarchy of multiscale modeling. The
diagram below shows where kinetic equations stand in the hierarchy of different
physics models from microscopic to macroscopic:

The Boltzmann equation, founded by Ludwig Boltzmann in 1872, is one of the most
important examples of kinetic models. It is an integro-differential equation that
describes particle transport and binary collisions of a rarefied mono-atomic gas. In
the past decades, there have been enormous studies on the Boltzmann equation,
both in theory and numerical computation.

As for applications of kinetic models, for example, aerospace activities arise in many
problems of rarefied gas dynamics. A rich harvest of research activities was achieved
in the last fifties and sixties thanks to the spectacular space programs, which led to
numerous theoretical and experimental problems concerning flows of neutral and
ionized gases.

One of the most significant
applications are flows over reentering vehicles, in particular kinetic heating, drag and
energy balance of satellites, the exhaust volume of rockets operating at extreme
altitudes and in space, design high-atmosphere sounding devices, production of gas
clouds at extreme altitudes, etc. The Boltzmann equation also has extensive and
important applications in other fields, such as astrophysics, plasma physics, design of
particle accelerators or semiconductor devices and so on.

Technology Adoption among the Elderly – Smart Older Adults in the New Decades

Information and communication technology (ICT) keeps advancing at a skyrocketing speed and complexity. Meanwhile,
many developed societies are seeing an ageing population as a result of advancement in modern medicine as well as
improvement in nutrition and public health. Indeed, in the case of Hong Kong, the number of persons aged 65 and above is
projected to account for over 25% of the population in 2030, up from just over 16% in 2017. Adoption of the technology,
however, has not been widespread in the elderly population. Many elderlies often have mixed views about the use of
technology. Some consider new technology as being complicated and not user-friendly. Costs and privacy are also common
concerns. To promote technology adoption among the elderly, family members’ support is often the key. Manufacturers can
also assist by improving the products through creating simple and user-friendly devices. Governments may facilitate the
adoption by encouraging or even working with non-government organisations (NGOs) to organise promotional activities,
coaching sessions and providing continuous support. Technology can enhance the quality of life of the elderly, whether in
sickness or in health. Potential benefits are countless.

Healthy Ageing

According to the World Health Organisation (WHO, 2020), healthy ageing “is about creating the environment and
opportunities that enable people to be and do what they value throughout their lives”. It is a process of maintaining and
developing their functional abilities, which could meet their basic needs, keep their mobility, ensure they can build and keep
relationships, continue to learn and make decisions as well as contributions to the society. There is an intrinsic correlation
between individuals and the environment, which can be the home, community with relationships among people, as well as
social policies and system. Individuals’ capacities are also related to physical and mental abilities like memory, hearing and
vision, that can be affected by age.

Healthy ageing encompasses active ageing, which requires actions from different bodies and parties to provide resources to
the family as well as community. In the local context, to promote healthy ageing, many government departments and public
organisations are responsible for elderly services such as the Elderly Health Service under the Department of Health (2018)
and The Chinese University of Hong Kong Jockey Club Institute of Ageing, which provide education to elderly on how to
age healthily in the aspect of eating habit, mental health, relationship, technology, etc. Among all, technology is becoming
the key element in promoting healthy ageing.

CAR-T Cells: The Programmed Cancer Killer

Enter the Chimera

Cancer is undoubtedly one of the most dreaded maladies known to humans. It is defined as a
condition where cells proliferate uncontrollably. Besides surgery, conventional cancer
treatments include radiotherapy and chemotherapy that aim at selectively killing cancer cells.
However, this is often accompanied by unwanted side effects, as these therapies tend to kill
off healthy cells as well. Fortunately, recent developments of immunotherapies allow us to
fight cancer in a more precise manner, with our own immune system. Enter the Chimera – the
renowned chimeric antigen receptor T cell (CAR-T cell) therapy, a man-made hybrid created
for the sole purpose of eradicating cancer. The idea of this therapy is to extract a type of
immune cell known as T cells from the patient, genetically engineer them into CAR-T cells in
vitro, and infuse the transformed cells back into the patient’s body. With the newly gained
ability to recognise and attack cancer cells, CAR-T cells are almost like a “living drug”
against cancer, fighting them off cell by cell!

Background Information – Immune Cells at Work!

CAR-T cells are constructed based on our current understanding of immune cells, which is a
part of our natural defense mechanism for dealing with infections and diseases in our body.
Here’s some background information about our immune cells related to the therapy.

 

Exploration of Mars IV

We mentioned in previous issues of our newsletter, that China, the UAE and the US
had successfully launched their Mars probes during the launching window in July last
year. After more than half a year of space travel, the three Mars probes, namely,
“Tianwen-1” of China, “Hope” of the UAE and “Perseverance” of the US have arrived
their destinations and started their missions.

The probes from the three nations have their own missions, but all of them are trying to study and learn more about the red planet. Exploring Mars was never easy and scientists are working hard to overcome different challenges. We hope that with more experience in exploring Mars and technology breakthrough, future Mars missions will be even more successful!

 

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关于香港桂冠论坛

欢迎大家来到香港桂冠论坛2021年5月份通讯。

鉴于新冠疫情持续、全球和香港疫苗接种的进展，以及全球对安全旅游的关注，香港桂冠论坛委员会The Council of the Hong Kong Laureate Forum Limited（简称「论坛委员会」）经谨慎考虑后，决定将原订于2021年11月15至20日举行的首届香港桂冠论坛（简称「桂冠论坛」）延期至2022年11月举行。

论坛委员会秘书处已就论坛延期事宜，与所有将会参与桂冠论坛的邵逸夫奖得主和每位申请者及合作伙伴联络。我们将在明年首届论坛举办日期和内容确定之后再通知所有相关人士和机构。我们会继续努力筹办，确保首届桂冠论坛能够顺利举行。

2021年5月14日是论坛委员会成立两周年的日子。为此，我们将以天气和气候变化作为我们今期通讯的重点主题。我们很高兴得到香港天文台台长郑楚明博士和前任天文台台长岑智明先生的支持，协助撰写今期通讯。今期通讯内的两篇文章，分别关于天气预测的挑战和子午线，便是由他们两位所提供的。他们亦同意为桂冠论坛拍摄一系列短片，分享他们追求科学的旅程和当上天文台台长的经验。

我们的网上科学问答游戏「科学夺宝奇兵」已经于2021年4月上旬完满结束。恭喜今次游戏的一众得奖者，他们很高兴领取了奖品。我们想借此机会感谢小米集团赞助了今次以及下一次游戏的大部分奖品！为了继续在社区层面推广科学发展，我们已在5月10日推出了一个名为「它和它的名字 他和她的姓氏」的新游戏。这个有趣的游戏要求参加者选择一个现时正在使用的科学名字并写一小段相关的有趣资讯，科学名字需要以名人、卡通或虚构人物命名。请大家踊跃参与，不要错过这个有趣的游戏。

更多有关桂冠论坛的最新消息、即将发布的短片以及我们的新游戏，记得留意我们的网站和社交媒体！

最后，2021年度邵逸夫奖的提名在2020年9月上旬开始并已于2020年11月30日完满结束。三个奖项的得奖者名单将于2021年6月1日公布。

气候变化 全球倾力应对

气候变化和它的不利影响

地球气候   一直在变

从1901至2012年间，全世界几乎每一个角落都有暖化趋势。暖化主要原因，是因为人类活动所引致。过往地球气候主要受太阳活动、地球轨道改变、火山活动等自然因素影响，自从1760年第一次工业革命兴起以来，大气中的温室气体浓度不断增加，人为因素逐渐盖过了自然因素，成为气候变化的主因。气候变化，也反过来成为人类目前及往后最重大的挑战。

据资料显示，由1880至2012年间，全球表面温度平均上升了0.85度。而过去的三个年代，也一个比一个温暖。据统计，北半球地区从1983至2012年的气温，可能是过去一千四百年以来最暖的三十年。全球暖化，已是不争的事实，这变化到底为人类带来什么影响？首先，海平面受全球变暖的影响而上升，主要是海水受热膨胀，加上冰川、冰帽以及格陵兰和南极洲的冰盖因气候暖化而融化流入海洋所致。自1992年起，格陵兰冰盖质量流失有加速的迹象，平均流失速度从1992至2001年间每年340亿吨增加到2002至2011年间每年2150亿吨。南极洲冰盖流失平均速度从1992至2001年间每年300亿吨增加到2002至2011年间每年1470亿吨，流失的冰盖主要来自南极洲半岛北部和南极洲西部阿蒙森海区域。

天气预测的挑战

古代天气预测

自古以来，人类的生活与天气息息相关。农民耕作收成，皆看天气的变化。早在殷商年代（公元前13世纪）的甲骨文中，已经有关于天气观测和天气预测的文字纪录。有研究表明，公元前1217年的中国不仅有连续10天的天气实况记录，而且还作出10天的天气预报，可见古时对天气的重视。

近代气象科技发展

现代天气预测，主要是靠电脑模式，相关技术叫数值天气预报。首先是收集天气观测的数据，然后利用电脑来分析现时的天气状况（技术上叫“初始条件”），再按照物理定律来计算未来天气的演化。利用电脑模式的运算结果，便可以制作显示未来天气的预测图。

About the Hong Kong Laureate Forum

Welcome to the May 2021 issue of the newsletter of the Hong Kong Laureate Forum!

In light of the prevailing situation of the COVID-19 pandemic, the progress of global and local vaccinations, as well as the global position on safe travel, the Board of the HKLF has decided after careful consideration that the Forum, originally scheduled to be held on 15-20 November 2021, would be deferred for one year to November 2022.

The Secretariat of the HKLF has contacted all participating Shaw Laureates, applicants and our working partners individually on the deferment. We will also notify all stakeholders upon the scheduling of a new date of the inaugural Forum next year and the drawing up a new programme overview. The Secretariat of the HKLF will continue to go full steam ahead with our preparation to ensure that the inaugural Forum would be a great success.

The HKLF has just celebrated our 2nd anniversary on 14 May 2021, to mark this occasion, this issue of newsletter will feature the hot topic of weather and climate change as our main theme. We are delighted to have received support from the Director of the Hong Kong Observatory (HKO), Dr CHENG Cho-ming, and former Director of the HKO, Mr SHUN Chi-ming, in preparing this issue of newsletter. Two articles in this issue, one on challenges in weather forecasting and the other on the Meridian are indeed contributed by them. They have also agreed to take part in a series of short videos for the HKLF to share their experiences in the pursuit of science and as the director of the HKO.

Our online quiz game “Science Hunt” ended in early April 2021. Congratulations to winners of the game. They have all collected their prizes with glee. We would like to take this opportunity to thank Xiaomi Corporation for their sponsorship of most of the prizes for this game and THE NEXT! To keep up the momentum of promoting science in the community, we have launched a new game called “Your Fame, Its Name” on 10 May. It is an amusing game as participants are required to write a short piece on a fun scientific term currently in use, which is named after a famous person, cartoon character, or fictional character. So put your thinking cap on and join in the fun and game.

Please stay tuned to our website and social media for the latest news of the Forum, coming episodes of videos and our new game!

Last but not least, the Shaw Prize 2021, which began the nomination process in early September 2020 and ended on 30 November 2020, will announce the winners in the three prize categories on 1 June 2021.

Global Response to Climate Change

Climate Change and its Adverse Effects

Earth’s climate has been constantly changing.

From 1901 to 2012 there was a warming trend in almost every corner of the world, which was caused mainly by human activities. The earth’s climate used to be affected primarily by natural hazard such as solar activity, changes in the earth’s orbit and volcanic activity. However, since the First Industrial Revolution in 1760, which resulted in an increasing concentration of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere, human factors have gradually overshadowed natural ones to become the main contributor to climate change . Climate change, in turn, has become the most significant challenge for humans at present and in the future.

According to data, the global surface temperature warmed by 0.85°C on average between 1880 and 2012, and each of the last three decades was warmer than the previous one. Statistics also show that the period from 1983 to 2012 was likely the warmest 30-year period of the past 1,400 years in the Northern Hemisphere. Global warming has become an indisputable fact. What effects have this change had on mankind? First of all, sea levels are rising due to the thermal expansion of seawater and a combination of glaciers, ice caps as well as ice sheets in Greenland and Antarctica melting into oceans, all of which is related to global warming. Since 1992, the massive loss of the Greenland ice sheet has accelerated. The average ice loss increased from 34 billion tonnes per year over the period 1992-2001 to 215 billion tonnes per year over the period 2002-2011. The average ice sheet loss in Antarctica increased from 30 billion tonnes per year over the period 1992-2001 to 147 billion tonnes per year over the period 2002-2011. The ice sheet that was lost mainly came from the northern Antarctica Peninsula and the Amundsen Sea sector of western Antarctica.

Challenges in Weather Forecasting

Brief History of Weather Forecasting

Since ancient time, human’s livelihood is tightly related to weather. Farmer’s harvest depends on weather. As early as in the Shang Dynasty (13th century BC), there were written records of weather observations and weather predictions on oracle bone inscriptions. Studies indicated that in 1217 BC, China not only had 10 consecutive days of actual weather records, but also made 10-day weather forecast, which exemplified the importance of weather in ancient times.

Recent Development in Meteorological Technologies

Nowadays we rely on computer models to make weather forecasts. The technology concerned is called numerical weather prediction. First of all, weather observational data are collected. Then computers are used to analyse the current weather conditions (technically called “initial conditions”). Thereafter the evolution of future weather is calculated in accordance with the laws of physics. The results of calculation from the computer models are then used to generate the forecast maps that represent the future weather.

Author: Dr CHENG Cho-ming, Director of the Hong Kong Observatory

Hong Kong Meridian (I)

How important are the making of astronomical observations and the provision of a time service?

Since the early development in the 19th century, shipping has been the lifeblood of Hong Kong’s economy. To ensure smooth port operations and the safe navigation of ships, an accurate time service, meteorological observations and geomagnetic observations had to be provided. These were the three major tasks of the Hong Kong Observatory when it was established in 1883.

As early as the 1860s, there was already suggestion from Hong Kong society that an accurate time service based on scientific methods should be provided. Catalysed by a severe typhoon in 1874 (known in history records as the “Catastrophic Typhoon of 1874”) which killed thousands of people in Hong Kong, the Hong Kong colonial government began to consider setting up a science-based observatory. Ultimately the HKO came into being, which has been standing on a hill next to Nathan Road in Tsim Sha Tsui, Kowloon till the present day.

Like other observatories around the world, the HKO has long been providing a time service to ships in the harbour through its Time Ball. The first-generation Time Ball Tower was installed at the former Marine Police Base in Tsim Sha Tsui and began operation on 1 January 1885. Later, owing to environmental changes, the second-generation Time Ball Tower was installed on Signal Hill in Tsim Sha Tsui.

I believe that if you have the opportunity to visit the famous Royal Greenwich Observatory in England, you would most likely have taken pictures at the “Prime Meridian”. But you may not have thought about the meridian in Hong Kong, which was established at the time when the HKO was set up and has existed for more than 130 years.

Navigation and time

Why does an ocean-going ship need accurate time in order to navigate safely at sea? The reason dates back to the 17th and 18th centuries, when Europeans rushed to explore the ocean while vying for greater economic and political influence. Previously, ships had to travel along the coastline. Even with the help of a map, crossing the vast oceans was very dangerous. Without accurate location positioning, ships could deviate from their planned routes and become lost, and in the worst cases they could even hit the reef and sink.

Author: Mr SHUN Chi-ming, Former Director of the Hong Kong Observatory

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關於香港桂冠論壇

歡迎大家來到香港桂冠論壇2021年5月份通訊。

鑑於新冠疫情持續、全球和香港疫苗接種的進展，以及全球對安全旅遊的關注，香港桂冠論壇委員會The Council of the Hong Kong Laureate Forum Limited（簡稱「論壇委員會」）經謹慎考慮後，決定將原訂於2021年11月15至20日舉行的首屆香港桂冠論壇（簡稱「桂冠論壇」）延期至2022年11月舉行。

論壇委員會秘書處已就論壇延期事宜，與所有將會參與桂冠論壇的邵逸夫獎得主和每位申請者及合作伙伴聯絡。我們將在明年首屆論壇舉辦日期和內容確定之後再通知所有相關人士和機構。我們會繼續努力籌辦，確保首屆桂冠論壇能夠順利舉行。

2021年5月14日是論壇委員會成立兩周年的日子。為此，我們將以天氣和氣候變化作為我們今期通訊的重點主題。我們很高興得到香港天文台台長鄭楚明博士和前任天文台台長岑智明先生的支持，協助撰寫今期通訊。今期通訊內的兩篇文章，分別關於天氣預測的挑戰和子午線，便是由他們兩位所提供的。他們亦同意為桂冠論壇拍攝一系列短片，分享他們追求科學的旅程和當上天文台台長的經驗。

我們的網上科學問答遊戲「科學奪寶奇兵」已經於2021年4月上旬完滿結束。恭喜今次遊戲的一眾得獎者，他們很高興領取了獎品。我們想藉此機會感謝小米集團贊助了今次以及下一次遊戲的大部分獎品！為了繼續在社區層面推廣科學發展，我們已在5月10日推出了一個名為「牠和它的名字 他和她的姓氏」的新遊戲。這個有趣的遊戲要求參加者選擇一個現時正在使用的科學名字並寫一小段相關的有趣資訊，科學名字需要以名人、卡通或虛構人物命名。請大家踴躍參與，不要錯過這個有趣的遊戲。

更多有關桂冠論壇的最新消息、即將發佈的短片以及我們的新遊戲，記得留意我們的網站和社交媒體！

最後，2021年度邵逸夫獎的提名在2020年9月上旬開始並已於2020年11月30日完滿結束。三個獎項的得獎者名單將於2021年6月1日公佈。

氣候變化全球傾力應對

氣候變化和它的不利影響

地球氣候   一直在變

從1901至2012年間，全世界幾乎每一個角落都有暖化趨勢。暖化主要原因，是因為人類活動所引致。過往地球氣候主要受太陽活動、地球軌道改變、火山活動等自然因素影響，自從1760年第一次工業革命興起以來，大氣中的溫室氣體濃度不斷增加，人為因素逐漸蓋過了自然因素，成為氣候變化的主因。氣候變化，也反過來成為人類目前及往後最重大的挑戰。

據資料顯示，由1880至2012年間，全球表面溫度平均上升了0.85度。而過去的三個年代，也一個比一個溫暖。據統計，北半球地區從1983至2012年的氣溫，可能是過去一千四百年以來最暖的三十年。全球暖化，已是不爭的事實，這變化到底為人類帶來甚麼影響？首先，海平面受全球變暖的影響而上升，主要是海水受熱膨脹，加上冰川、冰帽以及格陵蘭和南極洲的冰蓋因氣候暖化而融化流入海洋所致。自1992年起，格陵蘭冰蓋質量流失有加速的跡象，平均流失速度從1992至2001年間每年340億噸增加到2002至2011年間每年2150億噸。南極洲冰蓋流失平均速度從1992至2001年間每年300億噸增加到2002至2011年間每年1470億噸，流失的冰蓋主要來自南極洲半島北部和南極洲西部阿蒙森海區域。

天氣預測的挑戰

古代天氣預測

自古以來，人類的生活與天氣息息相關。農民耕作收成，皆看天氣的變化。早在殷商年代（公元前13世紀）的甲骨文中，已經有關於天氣觀測和天氣預測的文字紀錄。有研究表明，公元前1217年的中國不僅有連續10天的天氣實況記錄，而且還作出10天的天氣預報，可見古時對天氣的重視。

近代氣象科技發展

現代天氣預測，主要是靠電腦模式，相關技術叫數值天氣預報。首先是收集天氣觀測的數據，然後利用電腦來分析現時的天氣狀況（技術上叫“初始條件”），再按照物理定律來計算未來天氣的演化。利用電腦模式的運算結果，便可以製作顯示未來天氣的預測圖。